阶梯电价政策的居民节能意愿与节能效果评估--基于广东案例的研究

以广东省为例,基于粤东、粤西、粤北及珠三角典型地市的社会调查,统计分析阶梯电价政策对居民节能意愿及家庭用电的影响;同时运用广东省月度电力数据,构建ARIMA模型,定量研究政策实施的节能效果。研究表明,阶梯电价政策的实施对改善居民节能意愿有积极影响,并在短期内有明显的节能效果,但随着时间推移,节能效果有所减弱。为设计与完善相关政策,未来需要从节能意愿、经济激励等角度切入,提升政策的针对性、有效性。     

中国女性购买行为的价值观动因实证研究

本文从研究中国女性消费者购买行为的角度,利用结构方程方法,比较中西文化价值观对中国女性购买行为的影响和诠释能力,探索影响中国女性消费者购买行为的价值观动因.实证研究结果显示,较之于西方文化价值观,以儒道佛为代表的传统文化价值观能够更有效地诠释中国消费者购买行为.     

湛江模式的启示:探索社会医疗保险与商业健康保险的合作伙伴关系

在推进全民医保的新探索中,广东省湛江市在推进社会医疗保险与商业健康保险的合作伙伴关系上呈现出独有的特色,引起了政府和社会各界广泛的关注。"湛江模式"的重要启示是,社会医疗保险与商业健康保险建立合作伙伴关系,可以有效促进双方的共同发展以及多层次医疗保障体系的形成与发展。     

高速铁路对居民消费的空间溢出效应研究

高速铁路开通对居民消费发展具有重要影响。本文基于2003-2017年的省级面板数据,利用空间杜宾模型检验了高速铁路对居民消费的空间溢出效应。结果表明:(1)我国居民消费存在明显的空间集聚特征;(2)周边地区的高铁运营对本地区的居民消费水平有促进作用,但二者并非简单的线性关系,高速铁路对我国居民消费水平的影响呈倒U型;(3)周边地区高铁通过影响当地经济发展水平和旅客周转量来促进当地居民消费水平提升。为此,我国需要充分利用居民消费的空间依赖性来改善各地区居民的消费,完善和优化现有的高铁网络,以高铁发展带动消费水平提升,为经济可持续发展提供适宜的消费环境。     

The relationship between agricultural commodity prices,crude oil prices and US dollar exchange rates: a panel VAR approach and causality analysis

This study examines the relationship between crude oil prices, US dollar exchange rates and 30 selected international agricultural prices and five international fertilizer prices in a panel framework. The study uses panel VAR methods and Granger causality tests on panel data sets of agricultural commodity prices (as well as specific agricultural commodity sub-groups) and fertilizer prices with monthly observations of the period from June 1983 to June 2013. The empirical results of the present study indicate that crude oil prices as well as US dollar exchange rates affect international agricultural commodity and fertilizer prices. Furthermore, contrary to the findings of several studies in the literature, the present study supports bidirectional panel causality effects between crude oil prices and international agricultural prices as well as between US exchange rates and international agricultural prices.     

Oil shocks,policy uncertainty and stock returns in China

This paper examines the interdependence of China's policy uncertainty, the global oil market and stock market returns in China. A structural VAR model is estimated that shows that a positive shock to economic policy uncertainty in China has a delayed negative effect on global oil production, real oil prices and real stock market returns. Shocks to oil market‐specific demand significantly raise China's economic policy uncertainty and reduce the real stock market returns. As measured by a spillover index, the interdependence between these variables has been rising since 2003 as China's influence in the oil market has increased. An equivalent spillover index calculated for the US is smaller and has been largely flat over time.     

The microstructure of exchange rate management: FX intervention and capital controls in Brazil

This article uses a microstructure approach to analyse the effectiveness of capital controls introduced in Brazil to counter an appreciation of the Real. Based on a rich data set from the Brazilian foreign exchange market, we estimate a reduced-form VAR to characterize the interaction of the central bank, financial and commercial customers in times of regulatory policy measures. We find that capital controls change market participants’ behaviour, and that central bank interventions elicit a significant response in financial order flow. Referring to the source of order flow, we find no direct price impact by financial flows and thus no evidence that the appreciation of the Real is driven by financial customers’ activity. Instead, commercial customers seem to be a primary driver of the Real within our model.     

低碳发展视域下的科技政策:模式构建与演化路径

科技政策具有鲜明的时代特征,随着时代进步而不断演进与发展。基于低碳发展视域,以低碳经济理论、政策设计理论为基础,分析科技政策发展现状,从政策主体、政策客体、政策目标3个方面识别科技政策维度,构建基于战略、中观与基础层面的S-M-B科技政策模式系统框架,并运用博弈观点分析科技政策模式作用机理。研究表明,低碳科技政策是一个不断发展演变的政策体系,需要基于系统观构建政策模式,并保障主客体之间在低碳发展中的政策均衡。最后,运用放大镜模型探析科技政策体系演化模型,提出对接-整合-融合的动态演化路径及具体管理启示。     

国库库存纳入货币统计口径探析——基于货币政策中介目标有效性标准视角

随着我国宏观经济的快速持续增长,以及财政体制改革的深化,国库收支运行出现了新态势,突出表现为国库库存规模的不断递增,并且波动幅度不断加大,国库库存已经成为影响货币供应量的重要因素,在货币操作中需要密切关注国库资金的运行变化。首先描述了近年来我国国库库存变化的特征,然后基于货币政策中介目标有效性的可测性、可控性和相关性三个标准对现有货币统计口径和加入国库库存后的货币统计口径进行比较。从实证的结果来看,新的货币口径要优于原有的货币口径,因此将国库库存纳入货币中介目标监控体系,才能更好地反映宏观经济金融的实际情况,进一步提高货币政策的有效性。最后提出了将地方国库库存纳入货币统计口径,完善国库集中收付改革,推进地方国库现金管理三个政策建议。